Democrat Kanjorski Fading a Bit in Pennsylvania Re-election Bid

By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff Fri Jul 18, 12:07 AM ET

As congressional campaigns have heated up, many of the competitive contests have turned to the advantage of the Democrats.

Not so in northeastern Pennsylvania's 11th District.

CQ Politics is changing the rating of the Pennsylvania 11 race to reflect the likelihood of a competitive race this fall between veteran Democratic Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski and Republican Lou Barletta, the mayor of Hazleton and a prominent opponent of illegal immigration.

By changing the rating of the race from "Safe Democrat" to "Leans Democrat," CQ Politics still rates Kanjorski as the favorite but acknowledges a strong challenge from Barletta, who since January 2000 has been mayor of the district's third most-populous city. CQ Politics constantly evaluates its race ratings, which are subject to change at any time based on political circumstances.

Strategists at the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the campaign organization of the minority Republicans in the U.S. House, have long considered Barletta one of their strongest challengers to a Democratic incumbent. CQ Politics initially was hesitant to include Pennsylvania 11 among the ranks of competitive races, though, in part because the NRCC also heavily promoted Barletta's candidacy against Kanjorski in 2002, when he lost by the substantial margin of 56 percent to 42 percent.

Republican analysts say that Barletta is a stronger candidate now than six years ago, mainly because of the attention he received inside and outside the district for an ordinance he pursued to punish businesses and landlords that employ or house illegal immigrants.

Barletta announced his candidacy somewhat late -- in early February, just before candidate filing deadline in Pennsylvania. But it appears he'll have the resources to wage a credible campaign; as of the end of June, he had raised $518,000, or nearly as much as he raised for his entire 2002 campaign against Kanjorski. He had $322,000 left to spend at the end of June.

As a veteran incumbent, who is a member of the majority party, Kanjorski is going to have a lot more than that at his disposal. He reported having $2.2 million to spend as July began, and he surely will spend more than $653,000 he spent in 2006 against weak Republican opposition, or the nearly $1.2 million he laid out to beat Barletta in 2002.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the campaign arm of House Democrats and an ally of Kanjorski, has taken notice of the race. The DCCC this week reported spending $151,000 in independent expenditures for a television ad that links Barletta to Bush, who has poor approval ratings.

This was also a factor in CQ Politics changing the rating of the race. Though the DCCC is exceptionally well-funded and this television advertising campaign isn't prohibitively expensive, political parties don't spend money in districts where they expect easy wins.

Barletta is seeking election in a district that backed Kerry over Bush by 52 percent 47 percent in 2004, when Bush was more popular than he is today. That explains why the DCCC is seeking to link Barletta to Bush; just eight House Republicans represent districts that didn't vote for Bush in 2004. Barletta, for his part, denounced [@urlwhat he called@http://www.loubarletta.com/index.php/Latest/Lou-Barletta-responds-to-untrue-Kanjorski-attack-ads.html@] "negative attacks and lies" from "Paul Kanjorski and his Washington, D.C., smear team."

Though Pennsylvania's 11th is far from a Republican bastion, it probably won't be an Obama stronghold in 2008. It is overwhelmingly white (93 percent), heavily Catholic, older and culturally conservative, with one of the lower median incomes in the state. Obama lost badly to Hillary Rodham Clinton in the April 22 primary in the 11th District, where Clinton topped 70 percent of the vote in both Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties, which taken together account for about 60 percent of the district vote.