How Sacramento’s low-income voters fueled Flojaune Cofer’s rise to the top in mayor’s race

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Flojaune Cofer’s rise to the top of the pack of Sacramento mayoral hopefuls was fueled partly by the city’s lowest-income neighborhoods, a Sacramento Bee analysis found.

The trend of lower income voters favoring progressive candidates continued on down the line. Kevin McCarty, the second most progressive, is winning mostly lower and middle income areas, the analysis found. Steve Hansen, the most moderate candidate, is mostly winning higher income areas. Richard Pan, the second most moderate, is mostly winning higher and middle income areas.

Cofer, who has likely secured a spot on the November runoff ballot, was leading in 95 precincts during the most recent batch of results Friday — far more than any other candidate. She drew support across all income levels, leading in more precincts across the income spectrum than any other candidate. But she was particularly strong in lower income areas like downtown, midtown, Meadowview and Oak Park.

Cofer, who is Black, has participated in demonstrations after the 2018 police killing of Stephon Clark. She led 21 of the 30 voting precincts that had the highest proportion of Black residents in the surrounding census tract — the most of any candidate, the Bee analysis found.

The trend suggests that lower-income neighborhoods such as Meadowview and Oak Park, which are more likely to have negative experiences with police, support Cofer’s critical eye to department. If elected, she plans to reduce $70 million from the police budget. Her plan would not mean layoffs, but she would cut down on overtime, would not fill vacancies, and as officers leave or retire, she would not replace them. She would redirect the $70 million into hiring non-police personnel to respond to non-violent calls, freeing up police time to handle violent crime.

“When I hear things like, ‘our police department is understaffed,’ what I’m thinking is, ‘our police department is not using their time efficiently,’” Cofer said during a Jan. 31 Bee and KVIE debate. “And that’s a waste of public resources.”

The idea of reducing a portion of police funding gained popularity following the 2020 Minneapolis police killing of George Floyd, but Sacramento’s spending has continued to increase. The council approved an all-time-high $228 million police budget for the year that started July 1. Even years after the Floyd killing, police reform remains important to lower-income and Black communities.

McCarty, whose father is Black and who sponsored a 2020 police reform law, received the second most support from low income communities, including Del Paso Heights. Hansen and Pan, who both said they want to hire at least 100 new officers, adding to the police budget, did not win in as many low-income areas. That tracks with the trend of higher income, more white areas wanting to see an increase in police patrols and faster response times. The department currently has fewer officers than it did before the Great Recession, while the city has grown.

The findings suggest low-income voters largely disagreed with Hansen’s often repeated claim that more police actually do more to help than to hurt poor neighborhoods.

“Having been a kid who was beat up by his mom’s boyfriends, when those flashing lights came, they were there to save us ... our communities, especially our disadvantaged communities, deserve to be safe, too,” said Hansen, who’s endorsed by the city police union, during the Jan. 31 debate.

As of Friday Hansen was leading in four lower income precincts, three middle income precincts and 16 higher income precincts. His strongest support was in East Sacramento and much of Land Park.

Establishment candidates do well in higher income areas

In addition to progressiveness, the fact that Cofer is the only candidate who has never held elected office also likely played a role in her success in lower income areas, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of bipartisan voting data firm Political Data Inc.

“Sometimes the higher income precincts look also at the more establishment candidates,” Mitchell said.

Pan is a former state senator, McCarty is a state assemblyman, and Hansen is a former City Council member. All three have significantly more name recognition than Cofer, whose service on a Measure U sales tax advisory board was not largely known.

Cofer frequently pointed out that she is anti-establishment

“Doing what we have always done will get us what we’ve always gotten,” she said frequently at candidate forums ahead of the March 5 primary, particularly when speaking about the homelessness crisis.

Sometimes the establishment factor can even be more important than the progressive factor, Mitchell said. That was the case when Antonio Villaraigosa lost to Gavin Newsom for governor in 2018. In that case Newsom, who was more progressive, lost in many pf the lower income areas, Mitchell said.

Renters favored Cofer

Cofer was also more successful in precincts with many renters, the Bee analysis found. There were 63 precincts where most housing units are occupied by renters. Of those, Cofer is leading in 40, Pan in 10, McCarty in nine, Hansen in two and two are tied as of Friday.

Cofer’s plan on rent control could have curried favor with those voters. She was the only candidate who said she wants to lower the amount landlords are allowed to raise rent annually — currently at 10%. Pan, Hansen and McCarty all said they did not want to significantly change the rent control ordinance.

Rising rent has been a growing issue with Sacramento renters, where the typical rent for an apartment in the Sacramento region is higher than New York City and Washington D.C., a 2021 study found.

“Rent is always a topic of conversation in Oak Park,” said Lavinia Phillips of Oak Park, who supported Cofer. “We’re always talking about the fact that (landlords) are allowed a 10% increase.”

Phillips, who is Black, said she also favored Cofer for other reasons as well.

“She’s not speaking just for Black folks but she is one of us and she gives us an offer of hope that’s not entirely unrealistic,” said Phillips, a member of the Sacramento City Unified School Board. “We really want someone who’s gonna hear us. And not only hear us, but understand us.”

Hansen was more successful in precincts where there were a lot of homeowners, the analysis found. Homeownership didn’t correlate strongly with the performance of McCarty or Pan.

Elections officials divided the city of Sacramento into 185 consolidated precincts for the March primary. The Bee determined the leader in each precinct. It then matched precinct data with income data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Based on the typical household income in the surrounding census tract, The Bee classified each precinct as “higher income,” “middle income” or “lower income.”