What could Butler command in trade if Heat rejects extension request? Scout offers insight

The Heat now faces its most difficult decision of the summer: Whether to grant Jimmy Butler’s impending request to essentially replace the two years and $101.2 million remaining on his contract with a three-year deal worth $161 million.

Butler, who turns 35 in September, has some leverage in this.

If the Heat refuses to give him the specific dollar amount he’s seeking -– which would entail paying him $58.6 million when he’s 37 -- he could ask for a trade and become a temporary distraction/malcontent, as he did in Minnesota before forcing his way to Philadelphia in the months before he joined the Heat in 2019 free agency.

It’s important to note that it’s unknown if Butler would request a trade or lash out if not given the extension. That would remain a mystery unless the Heat rejects his request.

But if he publicly requested a trade and made clear that he would expect any team trading for him to extend his contract, that could further diminish what might be a limited market.

And it would make it challenging for the Heat to get a package commensurate in value to Butler’s skill level.

That’s why Butler holds at least some of the leverage in this situation. If Miami refuses the lucrative extension, he could make life not only difficult for the Heat, but essentially force the Heat to take a mediocre trade offer for Butler, or otherwise risk the type of preseason drama that no team likes.

It’s unknown if the Heat will acquiesce to Butler’s request, and it’s a decision that ownership and top management will need to talk through before he becomes extension eligible on July 7.

What would a trade market for Butler be, if the Heat goes that route?

“Limited at best,” a veteran NBA scout said this week, adding that it becomes even more limited if he demands to be paid $48.8 million (he’s already due to make that), $54.3 million and $58.6 million the next three seasons, as opposed to the $48.8 million and $52.4 million that he’s now due to earn over the next two seasons, should he exercise the $52.4 million player option for 2025-26.

As the scout said, “it’s got to be a team on the cusp [of a championship] that would have interest, and that limits the options.”

Some purely hypothetical Butler scenarios that could be worth considering for both parties, while keeping in mind that the Heat cannot take back more money than it’s sending out unless it stays below the projected $178.3 million first apron, a threshold that Miami is projected to exceed:

NEW YORK KNICKS

Butler to the Knicks in a package for Julius Randle would work, as could OG Anunoby (who’s an impending free agent) and a second significant piece.

“I like the Randle idea for Miami, but I’m not sure I like it for New York,” the scout said.

With Butler at $48.8 million next season and Randle at $30.3 million, the Knicks would need to include another player or players to make the money commensurate. The Knicks’ inclusion of Bojan Bogdanovic, due to make $19 million in an expiring contract, would make the numbers work on that Butler/Randle hypothetical.

But New York could easily consider that too much to offer, because of the five-year age difference between Butler and Randle, who has a $32.4 million player option for 2025-26.

Randle, 29, is a three time All Star (including this season) but has been out since dislocating his shoulder on Jan. 27; he underwent season-ending shoulder surgery. He averaged 24 points and 9.2 rebounds this season. Butler, 34, averaged 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists.

Butler has been the far better playoff performer.

NEW ORLEANS

Would the Pelicans - fresh off of being swept by Oklahoma City in the first round - consider trading Brandon Ingram and his expiring $36 million contract for Butler?

The Pelicans would need to send out more money than Ingram in that hypothetical deal, and Larry Nance Jr.’s $11.2 million expiring contract and a player at the minimum would make this a cap-compliant trade.

Ingram, 26, has been an All Star once before (in 2020) and averaged 20.8 points in 64 games this season --- down from 24.7 a year ago, a drop that resulted largely because Zion Williamson played 70 games after appearing in 29 the previous season.

Ingram also averaged 5.7 points and 5.1 assists.

“I would do that trade in a heartbeat if I’m the Heat,” said one veteran NBA front office member, via text message.

In such a scenario, the Heat basically would be comfortable with giving Ingram an enormous longterm contract, as opposed to having him as a one-year rental.

But would the Pelicans - who already have one star with durability issues in Williamson - want to take on another who misses 20 plus games a season in Butler?

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

If Dallas - up 3-2 in their first-round series - ousts Los Angeles, the Clippers could be looking to make changes.

But any hypothetical involving Butler and Paul George would be complicated; George - expected to decline a $48.7 million player option - instead could simply sign with 76ers, who will have enormous cap space.

Any sign-and-trade involving Butler and James Harden seems improbable.

CLEVELAND

While a deal built around Donovan Mitchell and Butler would make some sense if both players ultimately ask out, it would leave the Cavaliers without enough shooting and floor spacing.

The Heat likely would need to include Duncan Robinson – because including Herro likely makes it far too difficult from a salary cap perspective - and the Cavs and Heat would still need to settle on a second, third and maybe fourth Cavs player to navigate through cap gymnastics.

The problem is that Mitchell makes $13 million less than Butler next season, and throwing in Robinson would mean the Heat would need to take back another $30 million or so in salary besides Mitchell. It’s not impossible but would be very challenging.

(From a Mitchell/Heat standpoint, a hypothetical offer of Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., a first round pick and Thomas Bryant, after he opts into $4 million, would satisfy cap rules.)

OTHER TEAMS

Other thoughts from the scout: “There’s no trade fit with Phoenix; they’re not giving you [Kevin] Durant…

“Philadelphia has enough cap space to go out and get Paul George, so forget them. Dallas would make sense if they bomb out, but I’m not sure what the Heat would want if Kyrie Irving is off limits.

“Milwaukee doesn’t have anything of [commensurate] value to offer for Butler if [Damian] Lillard [and obviously Giannis Antetokounmpo are] off limits.”...

One league official said he would be very surprised if Oklahoma City would be willing to trade some of its young players for an aging All Star, and the math wouldn’t work anyway…

Golden State has too many luxury tax issues to consider taking on more big money, and Andrew Wiggins or Draymond Green wouldn’t be adequate value for Butler regardless…

With the Lakers, it’s impossible to concoct a package of near equal value for Butler without including Anthony Davis, who’s at $43.9 million next season. And that would likely be a non starter for Los Angeles. (Keep in mind that even though LeBron James can become a free agent, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski said it’s very likely James will re-sign with the Lakers, despite his non-committal public comments.)

Would the scout give Butler the extension?

“I could not justify it,” the scout said. “Remember, Butler plays three quarters of the season every year. It hurts them. If he plays more, they’re not in the play-in and not playing Boston. There’s a lot of wear and tear on the body.”

Here’s my earlier Thursday piece on how the NBA scout evaluates other Heat players’ trade value.