Kelly: How big will Tua Tagovailoa’s next contract be? A respected agent proposes a deal | Opinion

Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t entered the elite quarterback stratosphere, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be compensated like his peers.

Tagovailoa owns a 32-19 record as the Miami Dolphins starter the past four seasons, where he has led Miami to four winning seasons in a row.

During the last two, which coincides with him running coach Mike McDaniel’s offense and using All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill as the Dolphins’ featured weapon, Tagovailoa has led, or been near the top in virtually every quarterback category of significance.

The 26-year old could potentially serve as one of the faces of the NFL if he continues on this trajectory, especially if he starts winning games in the postseason.

General manager Chris Grier claims Miami intends to lock Tagovailoa up to a long-term contract, but a deal hasn’t gotten done yet, likely because both sides can’t agree on terms.

Allow me to propose a contract created by a trusted NFL agent that should work for both sides because it fully guarantees the quarterback $181 million during the next four years and makes his cap hit manageable for three more seasons, giving Miami an opportunity to acquire abd keep decent talent, and hopefully a competitive teams around him.

THE PROPOSAL

The contract would be a six-year extension worth $324 million that adds terms for 2025 to 2030 that gets put on top of the current fifth-year option salary, which guarantees Tagovailoa $23.2 million for 2024.

The proposed extension would feature a $50 million signing bonus, which divided by five (you only count the prorated portion for first five years of deals) puts his signing bonus cap charge at $10 million per year.

The new fake money average is $50.1 million a season, but the real money payout would be $46.3 when the fifth-year option is factored in. And if Miami exits out of the deal earlier — for whatever reason — it’s possible the Dolphins could end up paying Tagovailoa less ($42.3 million a season if the final year (2030) isn’t exercised).

YEAR-TO-YEAR TERMS

▪ 2024 salary: Base salary of $5 million in 2024 and a cap number of $15 million. Of course, the Dolphins could offer less signing bonus (say $40 million signing bonus which prorates out to $8 million per year), but why haggle? Tagovailoa and his camp would be foolish to turn down being paid $55 million this season instead of $23.2 million since its more than twice his salary.

▪ 2025 salary: Base salary of $2 million in 2025, and an option bonus of $35 million. Why an option bonus? Because it’s spread out through five years — 2025-2029 — resulting in a $7 million prorated per-year cap charge). The 2025 cap number is $19 million (2025 Salary, 2025 Option Bonus, 2024 Signing Bonus). The two-year real averaged per year (APY): $46 million.

▪ 2026 salary: Base salary of $2 million in 2026 and an option bonus of $45 million (the option bonus is then spread out through 5 years — 2026-2030 — resulting in a $9 million per-year cap charge prorated). The 2026 cap number is $29 million (2026 Salary, 2026 Option Bonus, 2025 option bonus, 2024 signing bonus). The three-year cash flow: $139 million. Three-year real APY: $46,333,333

▪ 2027 salary: Base salary of $2 million in 2027 and an option bonus of $40,000,000 (the option bonus is then spread out over four years — (2027-2030 — resulting in a $10 million per-year cap charge prorated). The 2027 cap number would be $38 million (2027 salary, 2027 option bonus, 2026 option bonus, 2025 option bonus, 2024 signing bonus). The four-year cash flow: $181 million. Four-year real APY: $45,250,000. Three-year new money average: $52,609,666

CONTRACT’S WIGGLE ROOM BEGINS

At this point the guaranteed money has concluded.

▪ 2028 salary: Base salary of $33 million in 2028. Cap number of $69 million (2028 salary, 2027 option bonus, 2026 option bonus, 2025 option bonus, 2024 signing bonus). This is the season where they can rework the deal to lower Tagovailoa’s cap number by whatever amount they choose — for example, convert $30 million of Tagovailoa’s salary into a signing bonus, which would take a $10 million cap hit — push $20 million into the last two years at $10 million per year in 2029 and 2030, with a net result in the “new cap number for 2028 being $49 million. The five-year cash flow: $214 million. The five-year real APY: $42.8 million.

▪ 2029: This is clearly an option year for the Dolphins, if they haven’t restructured Tagovailoa’s contract before then. His salary: $40 million base salary. 2029 cap number $66 million (2029 Salary, 2027 option bonus, 2026 option bonus, 2025 option bonus — same process as above in 2028 could be done in 2029 but — if it is done in 2028 — the 2029 cap number now becomes $76 million. Miami could convert the $40 million salary into a signing bonus of $38 million, and it would drastically reduce Miami’s cap hit.

THE EXIT DOOR

▪ 2030: At this point Tagovailoa’s salary would be $70 million, and there’s little chance he will see that unless he’s one of the NFL’s elites, or Miami has already restructured his deal, which is likely if he’s performing at a high level. The Dolphins could also add void years to the deal later, stretching out the cap hit. Cap number: $89 million.

If Miami pulls out before the 2030 season the franchise would have paid Tagovailoa $254 through six seasons, which equates to $42.3 million a year. And despite doing so, the Dolphins would have a three-year window to build a solid foundation around Tagovailoa before having to trim expenses to pay for the quarterback.

The downside of this deal is Miami would be married to Tagovailoa for the next four seasons, and there would be very little wiggle room when it comes to escaping the deal without taking a substantial cap hit. But that’s part of doing business with today’s NFL quarterbacks.

“Neither party can walk away feeling this deal is unfair,” said the agent, who doesn’t have ties to either side. “Tua’s people would be crazy to not take guaranteed money with his injury history, and the Dolphins would be showing the workforce that if you bust your [behind] we’ll do right by you, which they haven’t always done.”

When it comes to real money this proposed deal puts Tagovailoa in the neighborhood of Kyler Murray ($46 million a season), Deshaun Watson ($46 million) and Kirk Cousins ($45 million), but it also provides him the window dressing needed to put his contract in the stratosphere of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, especially in guaranteed money, which is where he would walk away the victor.