What to know about Heat’s high-stakes play-in matchup vs. 76ers: ‘We just expect a dog fight’

The result of Wednesday’s play-in tournament game in Philadelphia will determine what’s next for the Miami Heat.

With a win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday at Wells Fargo Center (7 p.m., ESPN), the Heat would clinch the Eastern Conference’s No. 7 playoff seed and open the playoffs with a first-round series against the second-seeded New York Knicks, which would begin Saturday at Madison Square Garden.

A loss to the 76ers on Wednesday would put the Heat in a win-or-go-home scenario later this week. The Heat would be forced to host a Friday matchup against the winner of Wednesday’s play-in game between the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks. The winner of this play-in game clinches the East’s No. 8 playoff seed and opens the playoffs with a first-round series against the top-seeded Boston Celtics, which would begin Sunday at TD Garden.

Two Miami Heat rotation players likely to return vs. 76ers, Rozier remains out

“We’ve been in a lot of big games before,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “We’ve all experienced it. We’ve been to the Finals. We understand what’s at stake.”

The Knicks have been one of the East’s best teams this season, but the difference between a first-round matchup against the Celtics and a first-round series against the Knicks is a big one.

The Knicks, led by All-Star guard Jalen Brunson, finished the regular season with a 50-32 record and posted the NBA’s fifth-best net rating (outscoring opponents by 4.9 points per 100 possessions).

The Celtics, featuring a dynamic starting lineup of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Kristpas Porzingis, closed the regular season with the NBA’s top record at 64-18 — seven wins better than the team with the league’s second-best record. Boston also recorded the NBA’s top net rating, outscoring opponents by a dominant 11.7 points per 100 possessions — 4.4 points better than the team with the league’s second-best net rating.

In other words, a lot is on the line for the Heat and 76ers on Wednesday.

“Obviously, everybody knows what’s at stake going into that building, including them,” Heat forward Caleb Martin said. “We just expect a dog fight. Obviously, we went through a lot of difficult games this year, over the last couple years, to get us prepared for these types of moments. So we’ll definitely come in with the right mentality.”

Here are five important questions (with answers) surrounding the Heat’s play-in game against the 76ers:

What does the four-game regular-season series between the Heat and 76ers say about Wednesday’s play-in matchup?

Not much, considering 76ers center and reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid played in only one game against the Heat this season. He missed the other three games because of injuries.

Heat forward Jimmy Butler was also limited to one game against the 76ers this season, while guard Tyler Herro played in only two of the Heat’s four games against the 76ers.

But Butler and Embiid did share the court one time this season in the 76ers’ 109-105 win over the Heat in Miami on April 4.

The Heat and 76ers split their regular-season series 2-2. The Heat won the first two matchups, but the 76ers won their last two meetings of the regular season over the last month.

“We’ve played them four times,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “I know Embiid didn’t play all the games. But we are who we are, they are who they are at this point.”

What will be the key on offense for the Heat to escape Philadelphia with a win?

Other than the obvious key of the Heat’s best players (Bam Adebayo, Butler and Herro) playing like stars, three-point shots are going to have to go in for Miami to score enough points against a quality 76ers defense anchored by Embiid. The Heat closed the regular season with a bottom-10 offense, finishing with the NBA’s 21st-ranked offensive rating.

With the 76ers expected to send extra defenders at Adebayo and Butler in the post and pack the paint, there will be some open threes available for the Heat.

The 76ers deployed this defensive scheme against Adebayo, Butler and the Heat in their final meeting of the season. It worked to slow down Adebayo and Butler (combined to score an inefficient 34 points on 32 field-goal attempts) and the Heat also shot just 13 of 43 (30.2 percent) from three-point range.

To win on Wednesday, the Heat’s three-point shooting will likely need to be better to make the 76ers pay for packing the paint. The Heat is 19-7 this season when shooting 40 percent or better on threes.

It helps that Duncan Robinson is expected to be available for the Heat, as he’s listed as probable for Wednesday’s game after missing the final four games of the regular season with a back issue. Robinson shot 39.5 percent on seven three-point attempts per game in the regular season.

But the Heat will be without Terry Rozier (neck spasms) and Josh Richardson (shoulder surgery) on Wednesday.

What will be the key on defense for the Heat to come away with a win over the 76ers?

The Heat’s defense will be tested against a 76ers offense that has produced like one of the league’s best when Embiid has been healthy. The 76ers have scored 119.8 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season for an offensive rating that would rank third-best among NBA teams this regular season.

The Heat will need to find the right balance between its man and press-zone defensive schemes to keep Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and the 76ers’ offense off balance. It will also be important for the Heat to keep Embiid and Maxey from consistently getting into the paint

The Heat was successful in doing that in the second half of its last meeting with the 76ers earlier this month. It’s just that Embiid and Maxey combined to shoot 9 of 14 (64.3 percent) on non-paint twos in that game to help the 76ers hold on for the win.

If the Heat can find a way to prevent Embiid and Maxey from consistently getting into the paint, whether it’s with man or zone defense, Miami will have a chance to win on Wednesday.

“It has to be our best, most swarming version defensively,” Spoelstra said.

What is one encouraging trend for the Heat entering Wednesday’s play-in game?

Like most seasons, defense has been a strength for the Heat this season. The Heat recorded the NBA’s fifth-best defensive rating during the regular season and posted the second-best defensive rating since the All-Star break.

The Heat actually held its opponent under its season scoring average in each of the final 22 games of the regular season. That’s the longest such streak in Heat history and also ties for the fourth-longest such streak in NBA history.

The Heat’s elite defense gives it a chance against the 76ers.

What is one concerning trend for the Heat entering Wednesday’s play-in game?

For one, the 76ers have been dominant when Embiid has been on the court. While Embiid was forced to miss 43 games this regular season, the 76ers went an eye-opening 31-8 in the games he played this regular season. So while the 76ers are a play-in team, they have been elite with Embiid available.

And the Heat has struggled against the NBA’s best, going 3-20 this regular season against the teams with the NBA’s top 10 records.