Will McIlroy finally win the Masters?
In April 2015, Rory McIlroy arrived at Augusta National needing a win to clinch golfing immortality.
Eight months earlier, he had won his second US PGA Championship, three weeks after winning The Open at Royal Hoylake. That took his tally to four majors, having also won the 2011 US Open and 2012 US PGA.
He was 25 years old. Tiger Woods had won six majors by the same age.
A win at the Masters would complete golf's crowning glory of a career Grand Slam, and see McIlroy join five others - Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player, Ben Hogan and Gene Sarazen - in a pantheon of greatness.
Nine visits later, he is still waiting to claim a Green Jacket.
BBC Sport looks at the data to assess whether he will finally achieve his goal.
What's his record at Augusta?
Compare the Masters records of Europe's two pre-eminent golfers, McIlroy and Jon Rahm.
Last year's winner Rahm served notice on his plans to take the title with a three-year run between 2019 and 2021 where he incrementally improved his top-10 finishes.
After a down year in 2022, he came roaring back in 2023 to win.
Then see McIlroy's record.
Between 2016 and 2018, he had a similar run to Rahm, even mirroring the down year in 2019. He bounced back in 2020 to finish fifth, missed the cut in 2021 before clinching a memorable second place in 2022. However, last year, he missed the cut once more.
That is merely the past nine iterations.
This could all have been sewn up 13 years ago had a 21-year-old McIlroy sealed his first major when leading by four going into the final day of the 2011 Masters. Instead, he collapsed to shoot eight over par.
Doubters suggest his time has passed.
Is McIlroy too old?
Back then, McIlroy was golf's most precocious talent. Now, he will turn 35 three weeks after the Masters.
His age is ammunition for detractors, especially as a swathe of younger golfers keep donning the Green Jacket.
He is older than that of an average winner, currently at 32.6 years old. For first-time winners, that figure drops to 31.3.
However, there are 13 golfers that have won the Masters for the first time at an older age than McIlroy, including two of the past seven.
It cannot be argued that either Sergio Garcia [37.2] or Dustin Johnson [36.4] were past it when they conquered Augusta. Do not forget Woods won in 2019 at 43 years old - even if that was his fifth Masters title.
And then there is Nicklaus – he remains the oldest Masters winner from his record sixth victory as a spry 46-year-old in 1986.
Over 87 championships, the Masters has been won 29 times by golfers older than McIlroy.
How does world ranking affect performance at the Masters?
McIlroy has set up camp at the top of the world rankings for more than a decade, winning more than 30 titles across the globe.
Since 2014 though, that has not translated to major victories.
Over the past nine years, only twice (Dustin Johnson in 2020 and Scheffler in 2022) has the eventual winner gone into the Masters ranked higher than McIlroy.
His best performance of the season brought him third place in the Texas Open last week and McIlroy once again enters this year's tournament as one of the favourites, with only world number one Scottie Scheffler above him.
What do winners do well?
Greens in regulation (GiR) measures how accurate golfers are at finding the postage stamp of grass at the end of each hole with an approach shot, for instance with the second shot on a par four or with the tee shot on a par three.
The data suggests nailing this metric is critical to Masters success.
Of the past nine winners, all but one (Patrick Reed, 2018) have made the top seven for percentage of GiR, and six of them made the top five.
In fact, the breathtaking approach play of Woods in 2019 (81% of greens hit) and Dustin Johnson in 2020 (83% of greens hit), set the benchmark.
Indeed, McIlroy's best Masters performances have married with this metric - fourth for GIR and fourth overall in 2015 and similarly second for both in 2022.
That year, he actually outperformed winner Scheffler in finding the green.
However. given the world number one's celestial approach play over the past two seasons, it is hard to imagine anyone beating him for GiR this year.
It is one of the many reasons Scheffler is favourite to regain the title this year.
It makes sense that getting the ball on the green more consistently offers a greater chance of making birdies and, to McIlroy's credit, his average birdie conversion rate is on par with previous winners (35.2% - 34.3%).
He just has to give himself more chances.
How does McIlroy fare across golf's key metrics?
McIlroy is peerless with his driver. He has led the PGA Tour each of the past 10 years for strokes gained off the tee and at Augusta, only once (Sergio Garcia in 2017) has the eventual winner been better in that metric.
Unfortunately, that is not where this tournament has been decided.
The past four times he has made the cut at Augusta he has been in the top four for driving distance.
Three of those have brought top-five finishes but the coveted Green Jacket remains elusive.
He is capable though.
And while he has impressed with his biggest club, averaging third overall for driving across his wins on the PGA Tour, more impressive has been his consistent skill in all facets of the game when taking trophies.
As the below chart illustrates, when McIlroy wins, he usually ranks inside the top 10 across all metrics.
He has also ranked highly around Augusta for all these key metrics - just never all at once at the same tournament
When McIlroy's game is dialled in, he is outstanding in every aspect.
And he wins tournaments.
Where has McIlroy won?
McIlroy has won trophies in seven countries but nowhere has he felt more at home than on the east coast of North America.
As the map below shows, of his 18 wins in the United States, all but two have come inside 1,000 miles away from Augusta National and 13 of those wins come within a 500-mile radius.
He has also won two titles in Ontario - eastern Canada.
He has multiple victories at East Lake in Atlanta and at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina. Both golf courses are a mere 140 miles away from the Masters.
That is minimal distance in terms of American geography - a UK equivalent is about the distance from London to Cardiff.
So will he do it?
McIlroy will tee off at Augusta this week ranked number two in the world, but with many questions to answer.
The statistics suggest he is capable of ending his long wait and there is no doubt he would be a hugely popular winner.
And as Woods pointed out in his Masters news conference this week: "Look at how talented he is, surely he has to do it at least once, right?”
But anyone can run hot for four days - and that is the danger.
